Forecast Matrix 2013-14
The One Rule to Generate Profits: Follow the Money
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Forecast |
NOW (Next 6 Months) |
NEAR (6-18 Months) |
FAR (2-10 years) |
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Best |
Recession in the USA, where GDP drops into negative
territory, marks a correction, a fiscal deal is done to reduce spending,
entitlements, and the growth of conventional spending programs,
including retirement age, increased taxes on the wealthy, and
significant tax incentives to create jobs, investment and re-shoring.
The U.S. would go over the "fiscal cliff" leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.
Achilles Heel: Fear |
Recession resolves: Manufacturing
improves, people feel optimism, markets return and accelerate based on
the new energy miracle driving demand curves, spending, and overall
optimism. Talk of a new era of American ingenuity, innovation and bold
leadership around the world produce a vision with America
becoming energy independent, repatriation of American pride, immigration
solutions, and reinvigoration of housing.
Cemex President expects U.S. housing starts to increase 16% next
year, hitting 873,000. The company forecasts U.S. residential sector
cement demand will jump 14% in 2013.
Achilles Heel: Energy Fizzle or
Controls |
Roaring Teens. We experience an unpredicted and
unprecedented boom due to a reset of a new spending cohort
55 & ALIVE,
which increases thought to be decelerating spending, increased saving,
preparation for retirement as a new investment age to promote higher
returns for a longer life.
Transduction is not a zero-sum game.
Achilles Heel: Fossil Fuel,
Bacteria, Virus, Pests, Water, Population. Growth |
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Probable |
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Worst |
No recession, markets don’t correct, continued in-fighting over
political stalemates, fear drives consumers away from spending,
widespread defaults accelerate as fear creates a positive loop that
feeds on itself, the space between now and the future drives a wedge
into the American psyche, they fear the end, and stop spending, a
recession is triggered before we can get to the next rung in the ladder,
gold skyrockets past 2000. Bond holders get worried and press for change
in corporate strategies and the deployment of cash and investment in
jobs. Small business confidence drops to 50%, spending slows.
Achilles Heel: Psychology |
Recession, markets continue to run for cover- Dow drops to 3000,
gold accelerates towards 5000, deflation emerges, as housing starts
drop, construction stocks, manufacturing stocks drop, investment stops
completely, money exits the USA, personally and through corporate
investment abroad, interests rates become an issue because we can’t
sell debt to foreigners, housing payments start to reset, foreclosures
and commercial defaults start to pickup. Annual deficit triples in 2014
due to deflation, low collections, and government stimulus. Doomsday is
discussed, GDP drops 5%, 10% globally, Europe goes into depression,
led by Eastern Europe. The energy miracle fails to materialize quickly
enough in the USA.
Achilles Heel: Energy Miracle |
Full-blown global depression,
nothing anyone can do to re-ignite demand, the FED buys treasury bills
outright to keep interest low to keep the domino effect from running
through the economy, spending decreases to 4fs, defaults increase,
unemployment skyrockets, fear reigns, gold goes to 10,000, farm land
skyrockets, commodities drop, manufacturing grinds to a halt, exports
and imports shut down, oil drops to $30. Runs on food due to fear,
strikes, and food stamps go to 100 million. The economy shuts down, GDP
drops 10% in the USA, even with Government dropping money out of
helicopters. Republicans win wide-sweeping elections, presidency and
both houses in a majority, based on Armageddon, riots in streets, food
shortages, hoarding, and martial law in some places accelerates.
Municipalities forgo services, and file bankruptcy to retain control,
the Federal Government issues new bonds to save America, FED prints
money to buy them, money, credit and lending flood into the system with
new Government Money Programs from the bonds, Fed buying all Treasuries
now, exports are dropping, imports drop precipitously, Nationalization
occurs around the world, Multi-nationals encourage protection, resource
hoarding, conflicts occur in all emerging countries due to loss of food,
2 billion without food, food price skyrockets, wide-spread food riots,
and violence, military coups abound, military confrontation spreads for
territory grabbing for future food supplies, early signs of inflation
appear, prices on food start to skyrocket, food shortages in the USA and
previously in Europe drive people into the streets, widespread marshal
law is declared the military takes over in the USA. China takes Russia
west of the Urals.
Achilles Heel: Transduction |